- Donald Trump won the 2016 presidential election by winning Republican strongholds and swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Florida.
- Donald Trump's popularity has declined leading into the 2020 elections, and the Democrats made gains in the 2018 midterm elections.
- Florida will be a tough race for both the Democrats and Republicans in the 2020 presidential election.
President Donald Trump broke down the Democratic Party’s blue wall in the midwest in the 2016 presidential election by winning Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. He also recovered Florida that had twice voted for former President Barack Obama. There was chaos in the 2018 midterm elections as both the red and blue strongholds voted unexpectedly. Democrats scored big, including in the upper midwest. Women nominees helped the party control the House of Representatives for the first time since 2011. Democrats believe that Trump is beatable in the 2020 election based on gains made in 2018, poor job ratings, and Trump's impeachment. During the 2016 elections, the Republican Party won thirty of the fifty states, gathering a total of 306 votes in the Electoral College against 232 for the Democratic Party. Unexpectedly, Trump managed to win the swing states, recover Florida, and convince a few Democrat strongholds to vote in his favor. In addition to winning the historically Republican states, the following are the swing states that the party must win to retain the presidency.
In 2016, Donald Trump won sixteen electoral votes in Michigan by less than 11,000 of the approximate 4,800,000 votes cast. Political analysts agree that Trump faces a tough campaign heading into the 2020 election. In the 2018 midterm elections, Michigan elected a Democrat governor, secretary of state, and attorney general. It also flipped two congressional seats from red to blue. Democrats are already training organizers and educating citizens about the importance of voting because over 75,000 Michiganders did not vote for the presidency in 2016.
Trump won the twenty electoral votes in Pennsylvania by about 44,000 votes to be the first Republican president to win the state since 1988. Political analysts say the state is up for grabs in the 2020 election after the Democrats flipped some Republican votes in the 2018 midterm elections. In the 2016 election, Trump received much-needed support from over 240,000 first-time voters while flipping over 100,000 Democrats to Republicans. The key question is whether these voters will remain with Trump in 2020.
It was a surprise for Trump to win Wisconsin in 2016 since the state had not voted for a Republican president since President Ronald Reagan in 1984. Political analysts argue that the state may favor Trump in 2020 since key suburban counties have resisted efforts by Democrats to flip them, and rural voters are likely to remain loyal to the president. However, things are not all rosy for the Republicans as Wisconsin voted in a Democrat governor in 2018 and re-elected Democrat senators. Trump’s job approval hovers below 50% as he faces stiff competition from Democrat candidates like Sen. Bernie Sanders, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and former Vice President Joe Biden.
Florida is set to be another tight race in 2020. Trump is in an excellent position to retain the state and its 29 electoral votes. Current polling puts the president in a tight race with leading Democrat challengers. The president’s approval rating is below 50%, but he remains the favored candidate. While Democrats made gains elsewhere in 2018, Florida elected a Republican governor and flipped a blue senate seat red. Republicans are concerned over the swelling Hispanic population that is likely to vote Democrat following the president’s harsh stance on immigration.
If the Democrats hope to defeat Trump they must turn a number of swing states blue and hold onto all the states former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton won in 2016. The Democrats must flip Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Florida, which is now the home state of Trump, will also be a key state that the Democrats must win.